Monte Carlo Simulator

Challenge Simulator

Run 1,000 simulations to find your probability of passing any prop firm challenge. Based on your trading stats.

Your Trading Stats

Based on your actual trading performance

%

Percentage of trades that are winners

R
R
%

R-multiple means multiples of your risk. If you risk $100 per trade and average $150 on winners, your Avg Winner is 1.5R.

Challenge Rules

Select a firm or enter custom rules

$
$
$
$

0 = No daily loss limit

End of Day
None

What is a Challenge Simulator?

A Challenge Simulator uses Monte Carlo analysis to estimate your probability of passing a prop firm challenge. Instead of guessing whether your trading stats are "good enough," you can run 1,000 randomized simulations that account for the natural variance in trading outcomes.

Each simulation randomly distributes wins and losses based on your win rate and R-multiples, then checks whether the simulated equity curve hits the profit target before breaching the maximum drawdown. The result is a statistically grounded pass rate that tells you how likely you are to succeed with your current strategy.

How to Use This Tool

1

Enter your Win Rate based on your trading journal or backtest results

2

Set your Average Winner and Loser R-multiples (how much you gain vs. lose per trade)

3

Select a prop firm from the dropdown or enter custom challenge rules

4

Configure the profit target, max drawdown, and daily loss limit

5

Click "Run 1,000 Simulations" to generate your probability analysis

6

Review your pass rate, equity curves, failure breakdown, and best-fit challenges

Understanding Your Results

After running your simulations, you'll see four key metrics. Pass Rate is the percentage of simulations that reached the profit target without breaching drawdown limits. Risk of Ruin shows how often your account hit the maximum drawdown, indicating the danger level of your current strategy.

The equity curve fan chart visualizes 50 sampled paths from the 1,000 simulations, with green lines showing successful attempts and red lines showing failures. The sensitivity analysis reveals how small changes to your win rate would impact your pass probability, helping you identify the exact edge you need.

Frequently Asked Questions

A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of randomized scenarios using your trading statistics (win rate, average win/loss size) to model the range of possible outcomes. Instead of predicting a single result, it shows the probability distribution of outcomes, giving you a realistic picture of your chances of passing a prop firm challenge.
The simulator provides statistically sound estimates based on the inputs you provide. The more accurate your win rate and R-multiple data (ideally from 50+ trades in a journal or backtest), the more reliable the results. Keep in mind that real-world factors like slippage, psychology, and changing market conditions can affect actual outcomes.
There's no single answer — it depends on your reward-to-risk ratio. A trader with a 40% win rate but a 3:1 R-multiple can outperform someone with a 60% win rate and a 1:1 ratio. This simulator shows you the exact pass probability for your unique combination of stats and challenge rules.
R-multiples measure your trade outcomes relative to your initial risk. If you risk $100 and make $200, that's a 2R winner. If you risk $100 and lose $80, that's a 0.8R loser. R-multiples let you evaluate strategy performance independent of position size, making them essential for accurate simulations.
Each simulation run uses different random number seeds to generate trade outcomes. With 1,000 simulations, results are statistically stable but may vary by 1-3% between runs. If you want a more precise estimate, run the simulation several times and average the results.
Risk of Ruin is the probability that your account will hit the maximum drawdown limit before reaching the profit target. A high Risk of Ruin (above 50%) suggests your strategy or position sizing is too aggressive for the challenge rules. Reducing risk per trade or improving your win rate can lower this significantly.
Yes. You can select from preloaded firms in the dropdown to auto-fill their challenge rules, or manually enter custom values for account size, profit target, max drawdown, daily loss limit, and consistency rules. This makes the tool compatible with any prop firm challenge.
Some prop firms require that no single trading day accounts for more than a certain percentage (e.g., 30%) of your total profit. This prevents traders from passing on one lucky day. The simulator factors in consistency rules when enabled, which typically lowers your pass rate compared to challenges without them.

Ready to take the challenge?

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