Challenge Simulator

A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of randomized scenarios using your trading statistics (win rate, average win/loss size) to model the range of possible outcomes. Instead of predicting a single result, it shows the probability distribution of outcomes, giving you a realistic picture of your chances of passing a prop firm challenge.

The simulator provides statistically sound estimates based on the inputs you provide. The more accurate your win rate and R-multiple data (ideally from 50+ trades in a journal or backtest), the more reliable the results. Keep in mind that real-world factors like slippage, psychology, and changing market conditions can affect actual outcomes.

There's no single answer — it depends on your reward-to-risk ratio. A trader with a 40% win rate but a 3:1 R-multiple can outperform someone with a 60% win rate and a 1:1 ratio. This simulator shows you the exact pass probability for your unique combination of stats and challenge rules.

R-multiples measure your trade outcomes relative to your initial risk. If you risk $100 and make $200, that's a 2R winner. If you risk $100 and lose $80, that's a 0.8R loser. R-multiples let you evaluate strategy performance independent of position size, making them essential for accurate simulations.

Each simulation run uses different random number seeds to generate trade outcomes. With 1,000 simulations, results are statistically stable but may vary by 1-3% between runs. If you want a more precise estimate, run the simulation several times and average the results.

Risk of Ruin is the probability that your account will hit the maximum drawdown limit before reaching the profit target. A high Risk of Ruin (above 50%) suggests your strategy or position sizing is too aggressive for the challenge rules. Reducing risk per trade or improving your win rate can lower this significantly.

Yes. You can select from preloaded firms in the dropdown to auto-fill their challenge rules, or manually enter custom values for account size, profit target, max drawdown, daily loss limit, and consistency rules. This makes the tool compatible with any prop firm challenge.

Some prop firms require that no single trading day accounts for more than a certain percentage (e.g., 30%) of your total profit. This prevents traders from passing on one lucky day. The simulator factors in consistency rules when enabled, which typically lowers your pass rate compared to challenges without them.